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Ukraine could break through rest of Russia's defensive lines by end of the year
US intelligence chief predicts positive development in counter-offensive that would drive a wedge between Russia’s occupying forces
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Ukrainian forces could break through the rest of Russia’s defensive lines by the end of the year, a top US intelligence analyst has said.
Kyiv’s troops have a “realistic possibility” of driving through the third and final trench system, Trent Maul, director of analysis for Washington’s Defence Intelligence Agency told the Economist.
This would give Ukrainian forces an open route to the sea where they could drive a wedge between Russia’s occupying forces, a key goal of the counter-offensive.
The absence of Sergei Surovikin, Russia’s former commander of the invasion who oversaw the construction of the defensive lines, and the Wagner mercenaries from the battlefield is helping the advance, Mr Maul said.
“Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been slightly pessimistic,” he told the Economist. “Their breakthrough on that second defensive belt... is actually pretty considerable.”
Ukraine is believed to have reached the second line of the so-called Surovikin line late last week when its fighters were geolocated in a Russian trench network outside the Zaporizhzhia village of Verbove.
The settlement, which sits on the main axis of advance of Kyiv’s counter-offensive, is an integrated part of Moscow’s defensive network protecting its land bridge between the mainland and occupied Crimea.
Andriy Kovaliov, a spokesman for Ukraine’s general staff, said its forces “are gaining a foothold within the recaptured frontiers” in a television interview on Thursday.
Ukraine likely holds parts of Russia’s defensive lines on the north-western corner of Verbove.
Geolocated footage circulated on social media on Thursday showed Russian forces hitting a new Ukrainian position in the tree line in the area.
Western officials expect progress to be slow
Russian sources said Moscow’s occupational forces were launching counter-attacks at Robotyne, a nearby village recently liberated by Kyiv, in an attempt to create an allure the settlement is still being contested.
Kyiv hopes to break through the Russian defensive lines before pushing towards the port city of Melitopol on the Azov coast, effectively splitting Moscow’s forces in the south and east, and severing the land bridge.
Mr Maul described the recent gains as “significant”, before telling the Economist there was a “realistic possibility” of breaching the rest of the lines, a turn of phrase that suggests a 40-50 per cent likelihood in the intelligence world.
Last week General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, the leader of Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive, said Russia had devoted 60 per cent of its time and resources to building the first line of defence in the belief Kyiv would never breach it.
But Western officials still expect progress to be slow, despite the expectancy there is little in the way of Russian reinforcements behind the first line.
One said this week that Kyiv was making “incremental but methodical progress” that was “slower than expected a couple of months ago.