![A member of the Ukraine National Resistance troops in training. Volodymyr Zelensky's real battle is far from the front lines](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2023/09/07/TELEMMGLPICT000345487135_16940746367380_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqHRRirXIAYf82yFJLtBB7qy2hPQBdtvkPmMUk8TcbD4Q.jpeg?imwidth=680)
![A member of the Ukraine National Resistance troops in training. Volodymyr Zelensky's real battle is far from the front lines](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2023/09/07/TELEMMGLPICT000345487135_16940746367380_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqHRRirXIAYf82yFJLtBB7qy2hPQBdtvkPmMUk8TcbD4Q.jpeg?imwidth=680)
As we enter the autumn the question that many people are asking is ‘has the Ukrainian counter-offensive failed to meet expectations?’
The short answer is that it has, in fact, exceeded the expectations of those who planned it. Tactically it is proceeding as expected in the face of unprecedented Russian defensive lines, operationally it is degrading the Russian war machine and strategically it has achieved unexpected success. However Ukraine is facing unexpected pressure from other, less anticipated, directions.
The offensive was always set to be a series of military set pieces over a period of many months – through 2023, 2024 and into 2025. The vital shaping operation of the summer of 2023 was always intended to see where best the breakthrough could be achieved when the complete joint force, including air power, could be brought to bear. The intent was always to preserve the force during this phase including the vital and precious equipment donated by the West whilst degrading Russian defences.
It should be borne in mind that much of the Western equipment has not yet arrived. The M1 Abrams tanks are due this month. The F-16 fighter jets will not take to Ukrainian skies until early 2024. As Summer turns to autumn, the job of balancing the Ukrainian force between legacy Soviet-era equipment and the modern Nato stock continues. The refurbishment of damaged equipment and the replacement of total losses will be taking place against a backdrop of harmonising the logistic tail to meet the challenges of 2024. Offensives which will incorporate the lessons of this summer’s fight as well as maintaining pressure on the Russians and limiting their ability to repair their remaining defensive lines are yet to come. The Russian defences, heavily probed and in some areas breached, are where they are. They cannot move or reconfigure. The initiative is with Ukraine.
On the Russian side the attrition of tanks, men and ammunition is a major concern. There have been significant Russian tank. Given that the Russian land combat power has been degraded by at least 50 per cent overall – many of the elite units of the Airborne VDV have simply ceased to exist – it will take at least a decade for the Russian land forces to recover. Ammunition stocks, we know, are running out. The Russian war machine, now set into overdrive, is revealing many of the flaws of the corrupt system that spawned it over recent decades.
Russian ammunition has a failure rate approaching 40 per cent because of corner-cutting and corruption. The Russians are now turning to the North Koreans for resupply – at an expense that is expected to be eyewatering.
Russian manpower is in crisis from attrition and a collapse in morale. Where Russian recruiters are becoming more imaginative with recruiting drives across the former Soviet empire and even as far away as Cuba, the authorities in those countries are now stepping up to challenge these efforts in a clear vote of no confidence in Putin.
Strategically and diplomatically Russia is decomposing. It has faced a coup, a purge is underway and repression is hitting unprecedented levels even for Russia. The Motherland is having to reshape its very economic model to meet the demands of the war, and even so Moscow is becoming reliant on supplies from rogue states like Iran and North Korea as President Xi of China bides his time.
The state of the Russian Black Sea fleet is poor and it appears unable to effectively blockade Ukraine. Each month 30-40 ships carrying 40,000 tons of Ukrainian grain make it safely to the Bosporus – despite sporadic drone attack on the Danube Delta. This may be because action against civilian shipping on the high seas would risk Nato retaliation, but it is happening anyway.
In the wider strategic picture Putin’s vulnerabilities include reliance on the regime in Belarus which would not survive the demise of Alexandr Lukashenko. Similarly Iranian support might waver following the exit of the ageing Ayatollah Khameini.
It is not all gloom for Putin however. The broader Russian Navy remains intact, apart from its marine units. Russia’s strategic nuclear capability is largely unaffected by the losses on the battlefield, though various nuclear-capable missiles have been used up in conventional bombardments.
But all in all, Volodymyr Zelensky need not be overly concerned as he looks to his front and considers his enemies. Zelensky’s real problems lie behind him, among his various friends and allies. With the US elections looming, questions must be asked about the consequences of a Trump victory regarding the crucial US support to Ukraine. Even while Biden remains in power, the isolationist wing of the Republican party in Congress now presents a serious menace to further war funding. And while Nato is now stronger than ever on paper, within the Alliance two blocs are emerging: the ‘peace at any price’ bloc led by France and Germany and the ‘victory at all costs’ bloc led by the UK and including the Scandinavians and Eastern Europeans (apart from Hungary).
France behaves as if the UK does not exist and as if Ukraine was an increasingly ungrateful needy neighbour.
Despite the successes of the counter-offensive so far, at the tactical, operational and strategic levels, Ukraine depends on resilience among its backers to win what is a now a war of attrition.
President Zelensky increasingly faces a war on two fronts.
Colonel Tim Collins is a former British Army officer who served with the SAS and as commander of the Royal Irish during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, when his before-battle speech to his soldiers made headlines around the world
Look out behind you, Volodymyr Zelensky
Ukrainians face a war on two fronts. They must push Russia back and keep French defeatism at bay