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Who is going to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup? Our expert predictions
Host nation France are front-runners with the likes of Dupont and Penaud predicted to have good individual tournaments
The Rugby World Cup gets under way on Friday when France play New Zealand. It ends with the final on Oct 28. Here our writers predict who will be lifting the trophy, who will be the standout players and which man will be the top try-scorer.
Who will win?
Gavin Mairs: France. The hosts look best equipped to deal with any opposition – frightening power up front, a back line laced with bedevilment and matched by a self-confidence to express their attacking ambitions, and a team utterly in sync with an increasingly engaged French public. Only South Africa look to have the firepower to derail them.
Daniel Schofield: France. Very little separates the top four sides, but home advantage tips the scales in France’s favour. Romain Ntamack’s loss is a blow and Cyril Baille’s injury is a concern, but they remain the most well-rounded team and are best equipped to neutralise the Springboks’ bomb squad.
Maggie Alphonsi: Tough call but I am going with France, the host nation. Before the game at Twickenham between New Zealand and South Africa, I would have said it was going to be a France-New Zealand final. The way the Springboks demolished the All Blacks, I can now see them making the final, with Les Bleus just edging it. The depth and wealth of talent in the France squad is unbelievable.
Charlie Morgan: South Africa. The reigning champions flexed their fearful muscle in that thumping of New Zealand and will relish the tough side of the draw. Slight question marks remain at fly-half and outside centre, but Handre Pollard and Lukhanyo Am are poised to be recalled should injuries arise.
Charles Richardson: France. The stage is set; the stars must now align. Given the development and achievements of this French team over the past four years, there is a good chance that they will. Among their weaponry, they have the best player in the world alongside players featuring in the best league in the world. The best French team of all time? Only World Cup glory puts it beyond doubt.
Fiona Tomas: Ireland. It is probably the most open World Cup ever but it is hard to look past the No 1 team in the world. Ireland have never progressed beyond the quarter-finals but this is their time. The loss of Romain Ntamack will catch up with France, who also have to defy big-game pressure as the tournament hosts.
Ben Coles: Increasingly more of a heart than head prediction given the injury setbacks that have hit Fabien Galthie’s side in the build-up. The assumption is that France will be like the France of the past and flake when the heat is turned up. This side seems different. The talent is too strong and the structure is there. They have a horrid route to the final, but a maestro in Antoine Dupont. It just feels like their time.
Who will be the player of the tournament?
Gavin Mairs: Antoine Dupont may be the best player in the world but Damian Penaud has the ability and panache to steal the headlines with his brilliant finishing ability. The 26-year-old is already a world-class talent, but could finish the tournament as a household name, too.
Daniel Schofield: Antoine Dupont. By virtue of France being champions, Dupont is the natural choice. Already anointed as the face of the tournament, it feels like this is his tournament in the same way the last football World Cup belonged to Lionel Messi. Such a weight of expectation could crush other players, but so far Dupont has seemed as impervious to pressure as he has to harassing flankers.
Maggie Alphonsi: Jonathan Danty from France. The guy is a tackling, ball-stealing machine. His partnership with Gael Fickou in the centre is solid. He carries hard, drawing in multiple players to create space out wide for his back-three finishers. In defence, few have the capability to get past him or even run through him and he is also lethal at the breakdown.
Charlie Morgan: Willie le Roux. South Africa’s heavies, such as Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth and Siya Kolisi, must fire if the Springboks are to retain their title and become the first nation to lift four World Cups. Le Roux, though, is integral to their phase attack and whether they can capitalise on inevitable forward dominance.
Charles Richardson: France’s Julien Marchand. We are in the age of the hooker. The stocks in this position across the globe are as plentiful and high-quality as they ever have been, with Marchand one of the leading lights. Expect his breakdown expertise, in the Malcolm Marx mode, and dynamism in the loose to light up the tournament.
Fiona Tomas: Josh van der Flier. The Leinster flanker has already scooped multiple individual accolades and has been Ireland’s most consistent performer over the past year. He will be a crucial cog in Ireland’s pack in their quest for World Cup glory.
Ben Coles: Antoine Dupont is an obvious choice, and you could pick from France’s collection of excellent forwards, too, but Penaud has emerged as the world’s best wing in the past two years. It is hard to see how his finishing ability will not end up deciding at least one of France’s big matches, perhaps in the knock-outs.
Who will be the breakout star?
Gavin Mairs: Manie Libbok. The Stormer has a golden opportunity to step out of the shadow of Handre Pollard as the South Africa fly-half. A sensational talent as a schoolboy and age-grade player, he seems to have rectified his goal-kicking technique that previously checked his international career and his distribution skills can bring a new edge to the Springbok attack.
Daniel Schofield: Canan Moodie. The secret was well and truly out of the bag when Moodie ripped apart New Zealand at Twickenham. Previously deployed as a wing, the Springboks used him at outside centre against the All Blacks, with his pace and ability to step off either foot providing the perfect foil to the overwhelming power of their pack.
Maggie Alphonsi: Two names that I have been impressed by are South Africa’s Canan Moodie – the towering athlete is full of potential with the world at his feet – and Sekou Macalou from France. He is not normally a starter but with game time you feel he will make a name for himself at this World Cup.
Charlie Morgan: Davit Niniashvili. Though only 21, Niniashvili is already familiar to many. The wiry, skilful Georgia full-back will reach a wider audience over the next few months, especially given Pool C could feature some upsets. Canan Moodie, Theo McFarland and Angus Bell are three more exciting talents to watch out for.
Charles Richardson: Paul Alo-Emile. It might seem perverse to list a 31-year-old in this category, but Alo-Emile is hardly a household name and the Samoa tighthead is in the form of his life. One of the global game’s great scrummagers – just ask Ireland.
Fiona Tomas: Selestino Ravutaumada was a handful against England at Twickenham and the 23-year-old winger embodies everything that is exciting about a much-improved Fiji side who have so much more than simply firepower and flair in their armoury.
Ben Coles: With (deservedly) a lot of attention on Fiji after their win over England, we are not talking about Georgia that much. And we should be. Renowned for their pack, it is the Lyon back Davit Niniashvili who provides the Lelos with a welcome X-factor, having already shown in the Top 14 and for his country that he is a lethal finisher. Feels primed for a big moment against Australia or Wales.
Who will be the top try-scorer?
Gavin Mairs: Penaud has to be a contender but South Africa’s Cheslin Kolbe is likely to receive more individual opportunities playing behind the gargantuan Springbok pack and has the dancing feet, power, bravery and football skills to mesmerise opposition defences. In the land of giants, Kolbe proves the small man can still be king.
Daniel Schofield: Mark Telea. This will largely depend on who France and New Zealand start on the wings against Uruguay and Namibia when someone is going to fill their boots. I will plump for Telea, who is just the latest in the never-ending line of All Black try-scoring machines. He finished the Super Rugby season at the top of nearly every attacking metric.
Maggie Alphonsi: They will come from France but I am divided between the experience of Damian Penaud, the exciting new kid on the block Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Gabin Villiere. All light up the stage when given space to run. If I was going to pick one, it would be Penaud.
Charlie Morgan: Will Jordan of New Zealand. This is not just based on Jordan’s impressive powers of anticipation and his acceleration. There are few more intuitive finishers on the planet. New Zealand also tend to pile up big scores against lesser opponents. Even if Jordan is rested for games against Namibia and Uruguay, I do not expect the All Blacks to be going home early.
Charles Richardson: Damian Penaud. The best wing in the world, on a prolific try-scoring run, playing for the World Cup favourites and hosts. It is impossible to ignore Penaud’s instinct for the try-line and, with France’s pool-stage meetings against Namibia and Uruguay, he could clean up.
Fiona Tomas: Damian Penaud. Whatever Penaud touches turns to gold. With 21 tries in his past 20 Tests, expect France’s flying wing to shine on the biggest stage.
Ben Coles: Penaud also makes sense for this award given his connection with Dupont, plus his ability to produce tries from either long range, in the air from cross-field kicks or by using his 6ft 4in frame to power over in tight one-on-ones. He really is the complete winger. Could see a hat-trick in the games against Uruguay or Namibia, or both.