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Most new managers are all upside. Unless you come into a club during a time of turmoil, when the loose truce between supporters and decision-makers has broken down, the inclination is to focus on best-case scenarios.
This is the time for vivid profiles about Johnny Newbloke’s incredible dedication, his relentlessly high standards, his zero tolerance attitude towards condiments. So it is no surprise and certainly no crime for Tottenham Hotspur supporters seeking out good news about Ange Postecoglou. This is a winner, an exponent of attacking football and by all accounts a genial bloke. Unfortunately there is a caveat: he has achieved all of this in Scotland.
Let us handle the exception quickly, and few are more exceptional. Sir Alex Ferguson did something which has never happened since, winning a title with a team outside the Old Firm, as well a European Cup Winners Cup and Super Cup for good measure. He then did alright at Manchester United.
It should not need saying that this was a long time ago. Since then success in Scotland has rarely translated to glory in England. Seven managers have managed in the Premier League immediately following stints in Scotland since 2000.
There have been some highlights, especially from Postecoglou’s current club. Brendan Rodgers went from Celtic to Leicester, won the FA Cup and nearly qualified for the Champions League twice before things turned sour this year.
Kenny Dalglish did not manage for 11 years between Celtic and his second Liverpool stint, which included a League Cup. A sign of his achievements that it feels like a footnote in his career. Martin O’Neill’s spell at Aston Villa, post-Celtic too, were good years. Crucially, all three had already excelled in England for Liverpool, Liverpool and Blackburn Rovers, and Leicester respectively.
Beyond them the field has been mixed. Jim Jeffries went from Hearts to Bradford in 2000 but could not save them from relegation. Paul Heckingbottom’s next job after Hibs was as Sheffield United assistant, from which he was promoted after Chris Wilder was sacked. That ended in relegation too, although he might yet have a happy top flight ending after United’s promotion under him this season.
Walter Smith operated under severe constraints at Everton and three bottom-half finishes were all he could deliver, some disappointment after his 1990s heroics with Rangers.
The biggest gap between Scottish promise and Premier League disappointment, and the example which looms most menacingly given its recency, is Steven Gerrard. He led Rangers to their first title in a decade two years ago, at which point he seemed destined to make the pleasingly symmetrical step to Liverpool at some point. After his spell at Aston Villa, and seeing what they have done since under Unai Emery, that dream may have gone.
There were probably clues about Gerrard, whose Villa team became far worse after the departure of assistant Michael Beale, a key figure in his success at Ibrox. Arguably he should have won more than a sole league title in three full seasons with the club.
No such drawbacks with Postecoglou, but he faces the same challenge as almost any new manager coming to the Premier League, adjusting from a small pond to shark-infested waters. The Spurs supporters looking for good omens may not find them in Scotland.
A warning to Spurs: Success in Scotland means nothing in the Premier League
Ange Postecoglou's trophy haul with Celtic is all well and good, but doesn't translate to England, argues Thom Gibbs