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‘We’ve been completely screwed over’: The A-level grade inflation scandal
As thousands of students wait to receive their results, the true cost of lockdown will be more apparent than ever
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“I didn’t really realise how much my education had been affected by Covid until I reached exam season,” says Guy Martin, 18. “I hadn’t actually done any real exams until my A-levels. It is a worry that the grade boundaries are going to be lower this year. I think we’ve been completely screwed over.
“We’re expected to do these exams under normal conditions when we haven’t had a normal education,” said Guy, who missed his first choice offer of chemical engineering at the University of Southampton after getting an A and two Bs. He will instead take the same degree at his reserve choice, the University of Surrey.
Guy is one of around three-quarters of a million teenagers receiving their A-level results on Thursday. They have been called “the unluckiest” cohort: thanks to Covid disruption, these tests have been the first formal exams they have ever taken.
And this group are also set to be badly hit by grade inflation: they are the first since 2019 to be marked according to stricter pre-Covid grade boundaries, as Ofqual, the exams regulator, hopes to force this year’s results back to “normal”.
Experts predict that thousands will miss out on their first-choice university offers, with some forecasting that state-educated children and disadvantaged students will be hit the hardest.
Before the pandemic, grade boundaries had been settled for a decade, with a maximum annual variance of one per cent. When Covid hit in 2020, the then education secretary Gavin Williamson instructed Ofqual to prevent any inflation, with an algorithm duly drawn up for this purpose. “I would like to reassure everyone who is waiting for grades that the system is robust and fair,” he wrote in The Telegraph.
The algorithm took students’ teacher-predicted grades and revised them using the students’ mock exam results and their sixth form’s previous results in a subject. But when 39.1 per cent of grades were marked down and students from the most deprived backgrounds were disproportionately affected, a public outcry saw the algorithm abandoned and students instead given whichever of their predicted or algorithm grades was highest.
This about-turn sparked a wildfire of grade inflation that is still smouldering. In 2020, the proportion of As and A*s awarded soared from 25.5 to 38.6 per cent, while D, E and U fails halved from 24.2 to 12.0 per cent.
Universities, which had given out the usual number of offers, were left scrambling to find 15,000 extra spaces for the unexpected over-achievers and Russell Group institutions dished out £9 million in deferral incentives.
“It completely devalues the system because one of the main functions of A-levels is to enable universities and employers to tell their applicants apart,” says Prof Alan Smithers of the University of Buckingham. “The universities muddled through and undoubtedly some students got places that they really didn’t deserve.”
In 2021, inflation increased further as grades were handed out solely on the basis of teacher predictions. As and A*s soared to 44.8 per cent of all grades, while D, E and U fails fell further to 11.5 per cent.
Now, we are seeing the consequences. Last week, it was reported that students are dropping out of some university courses in record numbers, with their admission on inflated grades thought to be a factor.
“What happened was universities and employers could not differentiate between the very bright – the Isaac Newtons of physics – and the good,” argues Chris McGovern, chairman of the Campaign for Real Education and a former adviser to Margaret Thatcher and John Major. “It made their job impossible, really.”
One father was initially pleased when his son received unexpectedly good A-levels in 2020 and sailed from his state school into a Russell Group university to read geography. But now he is struggling, and “not engaging” with the course.
“We feel that those marks have bred a complacency within him that he would get a good grade at university without much effort being required, and that he could ‘game the system’ again,” he says. “University is supposed to be a transition to becoming an independent, employable adult, but we fear that all that awaits him once he leaves is a hard fall with his future hopes dashed.”
He says grade inflation “does more harm than good to a child if the education system sucks them in and gives them false hope”.
This trend is borne out by a consensus among lecturers and tutors that current university students need greater pastoral and academic support than previous generations, according to Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter.
“Whether that’s because they have higher grades than they would have otherwise had or whether it’s literally down to the impact of the pandemic on their wellbeing and learning generally, I do think both within the school and the university system there is a perception that they need more support,” he explains.
Last year, the Government launched a phased two-year crackdown. As and A*s decreased to 36.4 per cent while D, E and U fails increased to 17.5 per cent, and this year the share of As and A*s has fallen by a record amount to 27.2 per cent, just 1.7 percentage points higher than in 2019.
Adding to student worries is the revelation that Russell Group universities are offering more places in clearing to foreign students than their British counterparts, despite domestic demand for these places set to be the highest in years.
One student who was anxious about the stricter grade boundaries is India, who received an A in philosophy and a C in history of art. She sat one A-level, in politics, in 2022, when grades were being inflated, but due to illness had to sit the other two this year, meaning they will be marked under stricter grade boundaries. Her results saw her meet her first-choice offer of politics at the University of Sussex, for which she needed a B and two Cs.
“It has been quite a lot but it was the best way for me to be able to move on and go to university,” she says. “I feel like my exams went well and I’d love to get an A but I think that’s less likely to happen this year than it would last year, which is a bit unfortunate. I do think reducing the top grades should have been done more slowly, partly just to reduce the stress that comes with doing your exams, but it had to happen some time.”
Josh, from Petersfield, Hampshire, received a C in his digital photography A-level and the equivalent of an A* in his BTEC diploma in sports science. “Sport is very much in my son’s blood and the social aspect of school is what he loved, and that was taken away from him in Covid,” recalls Debbie, his mother, who disagrees with the return to 2019 boundaries.
“Have these kids not suffered enough? For the examiners to go ‘we have decided everyone is through Covid, everyone is OK, let’s now crack on with the real world’. No, these were the guys who suffered at the time. Let’s be in the real world.”
Maisy Harradine, from Ross-on-Wye, Herefordshire, needed straight As to meet her sport and exercise science offer from the University of Bath, but felt resilient about the grade changes and duly received what she needed.
“As nice as it would have been to have lower boundaries, they have to come down at some point and everyone in my year is in the same situation,” the 18-year-old says.
“So yes, I think it is fair especially considering Covid hasn’t directly impacted our two A-level years. There’s nothing we can do to change it, so there’s no point stressing.”
Indeed, the consensus that appears to have emerged is that since the first year to face pre-pandemic boundaries is always going to feel disadvantaged, grade inflation needs to be culled sooner rather than later. “At some points in their lives, students are going to have to face these challenges,” says Dr Jennie Bristow, a sociology lecturer at Canterbury Christ Church University and co-author of The Corona Generation. “Grade inflation just does not do anyone a favour.”
“This year’s students have had a really rough time,” adds Prof Smithers. “There is a tremendous amount of sympathy for them and you may think ‘Why hit them harder?’.
“But that is going to be the case next year as well because those students will have been affected in their schooling too. It must be done to restore the value of the grades.”
Education Secretary Gillian Keegan said: “I’m incredibly proud of all students receiving their results today. For many, this will have been the first set of formal exams they have ever taken, having faced unprecedented circumstances in the years building up to this summer.
“I know young people will have risen to the challenge, and thousands will get the results they need to take hold of their future, whether at university, through an apprenticeship or in the world of work. There are more options than ever before and a huge amount of support available, whether pupils get the results they wanted or not.
“Congratulations to each and every young person taking their next step and thank you to the teachers who helped them get there.”