Prigozhin crash: Wagner chief pays the ultimate price for ‘making a move on' Putin

“If you come for the king,” says one of the gangsters in The Wire, “you’d better not miss.”

On June 24, Yevgeny Prigozhin went for the king.

His Wagner mercenaries charged towards Moscow in a headlong rush up the motorway, downing Russian aircraft and reportedly killing 13 servicemen on the way.

He tried to explain away his mutinous actions as an attempt to hold to account defence minister Sergei Shoigu and head of the armed forces Gen Gerasimov.

Most Kremlin insiders saw through that. One in particular, the only one that really counts, immediately saw it for the threat it was.

Vladimir Putin is thought to have flown to St Petersburg as the Wagner mercenaries raced towards Moscow.

It matters not if that was true – the narrative caught fire on Russian social media channels. Putin looked weak, scared and no longer in control of the reins of power.

For that is what this event is all about – power. There is no verifiable evidence yet that Prigozhin was on the doomed jet – although it has been confirmed his name was on the passenger list – or what circumstances caused it to tumble from the sky, but this will be interpreted as “the boss” stamping his authority once more.

There will be minimal impact directly on the war in Ukraine. If Putin could have changed the Ukraine war strategy, he would have done so already.

Certainly, Putin used Wagner as shock troops, most obviously in the fight for Bakhmut. They in turn had to rely on emptying Russian jails and forcing men to run at Ukrainian guns in suicidal waves, just to get the defending troops to reveal their positions.

Russia though has now largely transitioned to the defensive, for which such requirements are lessened, so the loss of Wagner will not be felt as keenly as it might have been six months ago.

However, the effect on the oligarchs – the one body of Russian society that could, possibly, unseat Putin if they acted in concert – will be huge.

This action will bring them all into line and restore Putin’s image of being in control. It could bolster domestic public opinion in a major way; Russians like a strong man in charge and, as Putin himself said, “traitors” are always dealt with.

This is all about regaining and reinforcing domestic support and there are already signs of change in the armed forces.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, reports that a Wagner-affiliated source claimed that the Russian General Staff now has “carte blanche” and has purged all proteges of Army General Sergei Surovikin, the man briefly in charge of Russia’s war in Ukraine and a Wagner affiliate who was reportedly ousted and placed under house arrest.

Unless there is a dramatic turn of events in the next 24 hours, and Prigozhin is shown to be alive and still in favour, this event makes Putin stronger and his enemies scared.

This is likely to spell the end of the Wagner Group as a coherent entity. Remaining Wagner fighters will likely assimilate now into the regular Russian forces, the order for which was the genesis of the mutiny in the first place when Prigozhin saw his private venture being wrested from his hands.

He had served his purpose – to export the brand of Russian security across Africa, securing lucrative mining rights, and probably also promises of votes in the UN General Assembly, along the way.

Any lingering hope that remained in the rump of Wagnerites holding out for a separate identity, with all the trappings they had become accustomed to, went up in the flames of the jet as it impacted the open green fields, similar to those in Ukraine that they have left steeped in blood.

The other private military companies – that every single businessman of any note has in Russia these days – will stay close to their owners to keep them safe and away from trouble. At least for now.

This will send a strong internal signal ahead of Russian elections next year – know your place, never think you are untouchable and, most importantly, don’t make a move on the king.